CCS Insight reports, in its Mobile Phone forecast - April 2014 (thanks to article in Mobile News article), sales of 4G phones are set to double this year and rise to 1.2 billion in 2018, accounting for over half of the 2.4 billion phones sold in that year.
It is anticipated that the key driver [for that adoption] will be the cost of 4G phones falling below €€100 in the second half of this year, with most operators removing any premium for using the services.
Globally, CCS Insight is predicting unit sales will grow from 1.95 billion in 2014 to 2.29 billion in 2018. Smartphone sales will make up 64 per cent of sales this year and 82 per cent in four years time.
From this, the proportion of 4G-enabled sales will almost double from 26 per cent to 51 per cent, with 56 per cent of phones sold in Western-Europe this year being 4G-enabled.
Across the board, the analyst also expects the average selling price (ASP) of mobiles to fall this year from $168 this year (£100) to $154 (£92) in 2018.
The forecast predicts that Android’s, which accounted for 79 per cent of the one billion smartphones sold last year, will see its dominance continue. Despite doubts over the commitment from manufacturers to Windows Phone, it said its ability to compete at lower price points and taking advantage of BlackBerry’s recent decline will enable it to benefit.
Google make a huge foray into the mobile arena, by providing a phone operating system for free 'Android'. It has launched Open Handset Alliance as the vehicle to facilitate its penetration into the mobile market.
See Sergry Brin introduce it:
Four handset manufacturers are on board: Samsung, HTC, Motorola and LG. Operators?? Sprint, Nextel, T-Mobile, China Mobile, Telefonica and Telecom Italia will sport the Google-powered phones - the first of them will be available late 2008.
This announcement is more than a poke in the eye with significant mobile OS providers such as Microsoft, Research in Motion, Palm and Symbian.
Clearly, everyone is feeling everyone else out with this new offering - 'of course, I'll participate, but I'm not going to jettison any of my existing partnerships that I have nurtured for years'.
I think this strategy is too early for Google - mobile internet isn't what 99% of users require out of a phone at the moment. Another desktop player, MS, took years to gain traction in the mobile sector. Admittedly, this strategy isn't home grown, it came from the acquisition of Android in 2005 - so it will have a better chance than MS, but still...
Google's behemoth is advertising - the mobile industry is a lot more sophisticated and VERY different to the internet. 'Free' isn't word that is trips off the tongue of mobile executives.
I reserve judgment. As I've said before, when people with lots of ammunition are wandering around the battlefield, be careful, they don't have to know too much about what they are doing to be very dangerous.
UPDATE: Here's a biting critique of Google's announcement from a report from Analysys:
As a strategy to bring fundamental change to the mobile industry, Android is way off target. In reality, a free OS will not be sufficient incentive for major players to write off investments in established software platforms and adopt a platform that offers nothing new from a development perspective. Manufacturers have a financial liability for their devices, and cannot contemplate the prospect of an open-source OS that could release a virus or trojan into the market. The required investment in OS security and stability would be high, as it has been for Android’s predecessors. They (members of the Open Handset Alliance) can exploit the publicity if the initiative is successful, and minimise their exposure (as one of several players participating in numerous initiatives) if it fails. In cash terms, partners will invest little in R&D to support this programme. Ultimately, Google’s primary strategic and revenue objective is to encourage the use of its search engine. If, by backing an OS alliance, Google can expand the scope of its search box placement by cementing relationships with established partners and developing deals with new partners, arguably Android will have done its job.
The world's two largest handset makers (Nokia and Motorola) have each introduced their own navigation services that use GPS on their phones. From a CNET article:
The company also said this week that it plans to make application programming interfaces to its software available to third-party developers so that they also can develop new services and applications that leverage location through GPS.
This is a great prod in the right direction, as the mobile operators (as least outside of US - see the excellent article for the reasons why) have been slow to deploy or make much value out of LBS. However, this won't really work as a platform to enable innovative (and compelling) 3rd party applications to appear - you know the sort of services that are always showcased:
Where's are my friends? Then lets go to a nearby Italian restaurant that has a fish promotion on.
The reason being is that these LBS APIs needs to be inter-operable so that someone on a Nokia handset can find out where their friends are on Seimens, Sony Ericsson, LG handsets. Sadly, this isn't a strength of handset manufacturers - operators do a better job of this generally. However this announcement may spur the operators to innovate.....
This BBC article reports on the user growth in India and the associated scrum from the handset manufacturers.
Interestingly, the article mentions the fact that improved phone locking techniques (ie locking the handset to a SIM or locking it to a network provider) means that phones 'stay with' the network provider. This in turns enables the operators to subsidise the cost of the handset to the subscriber, thereby lower the entry barrier to adoption - further driving growth.
This, of course, will reduce handset churn (a essential component if the network and handsets are rapidly evolving; Question: has development plateaued suitably for this step to be appropriate) and hamper the second hand market (good at preventing theft and resale of mobile phones - a big problem in London, for example).
IDC and Strategy Analytics reports a near-25% rise from 20065 and predicts 1.1billion sales for 2007. See this nice summary.
No surprises that China & India provided most of the growth. Nokia remains the market leader with a third of all phones sold. Congratulations to Sony-Ericsson for 61% growth to overtake Samsung as the third largest manufacturer.
